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Prediction for CME (2024-01-09T15:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-09T15:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28543/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and for a few frames of STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption in the SE quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from about E60 to E15 at latitude S35. Liftoff can be seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2024-01-09T13:00Z. Opening field lines and the rise of a flux rope are seen in SDO AIA 171 and dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 around 14:00Z. Data gap in STEREO A COR2 Beacon imagery lasting from 2024-01-09T15:53Z to 2024-01-10T01:23Z so CME is not captured at all. CME partially overlaps with another filament eruption CME to the southeast.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-12T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28545/1
Model Inputs:
2024-01-09T15:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-26.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=674.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2024-01-09T21:00Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-12T09:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-13T12:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-12T11:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-12T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240109_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 42.30 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-01-10T14:42Z

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